Rate Analysis · Updated April 2026
Meralco Rate History and Forecast — How Much by 2030?
Meralco rates have increased by approximately 52% over the past 11 years. Understanding why — and where rates are headed — is the single most important factor in calculating your solar return.
Meralco rate history — 2015 to 2026
The current Meralco residential rate is ₱14.35/kWh as of April–May 2026 — up from the 2015 annual average of ₱9.44/kWh. That is approximately a 52% increase over 11 years, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 3.9% per year.
Post-EPIRA stabilization period (2015 annual average)
Gradual increase driven by fuel costs
Coal price increases pass through to consumers
Pandemic-era demand reduction tempers growth
Global energy crisis — coal and gas spike
Post-crisis normalisation at elevated levels
Peso depreciation adds to import costs
FIT-All increase, continued generation pressure
ERC benchmark rate — ₱14.3496/kWh (April 2026). Households consuming 800+ kWh/month pay higher effective rates (₱15.50+/kWh) due to the Energy Tax under BP 36.
The key number
The 11-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of Meralco rates from 2015 to 2026 is approximately 3.9% per year based on official ERC billing data. TrueSouth solar proposals use a 5% annual growth assumption for 25-year savings projections — above the historical trend to account for structural pressures: pending distribution rate reviews, continued fuel import dependency, and new renewable surcharges like the GEA-All introduced in January 2026.
Why Meralco rates keep going up
Coal and natural gas dependence
Over 60% of Meralco's generation mix comes from coal and natural gas — both dollar-denominated imports. When global fuel prices rise or the peso weakens, your bill goes up the following month. This structural dependency is unlikely to change significantly before 2030.
Peso depreciation
Most power supply agreements are denominated in US dollars. When the Philippine peso weakens against the dollar — as it has over the past decade — generation costs automatically increase without any change in actual energy consumption.
Ageing power infrastructure
Forced outages of older power plants cause Meralco to buy emergency power from the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) at spot prices, which can be 3–5x the normal contracted rate. These spikes are passed to consumers the following billing month.
FIT-All increases
The Feed-in Tariff Allowance funds subsidies for large-scale renewable energy plants. The ERC raised the FIT-All from ₱0.1189 to ₱0.2073/kWh in November 2025 — nearly doubling it. As of January 2026, the ERC adjusted it slightly downward to ₱0.2011/kWh. Simultaneously, the ERC introduced a brand-new line-item charge called the Green Energy Auction Allowance (GEA-All) at ₱0.0371/kWh. Combined, these renewable energy surcharges total ₱0.2382/kWh as of early 2026 and are expected to grow as successive GEA rounds add more renewable capacity to the grid.
Energy Tax (Batas Pambansa Blg. 36)
A graduated national energy tax applies to residential consumption above 650 kWh/month. The ERC benchmark rate of ₱14.35/kWh is calculated for a reference consumption level — but a household drawing 830 kWh from the grid pays an effective all-in rate of ₱15.55/kWh because the Energy Tax applies to every kWh consumed above the 650 threshold. Solar systems that reduce grid imports below 650 kWh/month eliminate this tax entirely — a savings multiplier that the benchmark rate alone does not capture. This also means solar becomes more valuable with every rate increase, since the Energy Tax compounds on top of the rising base rate.
Distribution rate review
Meralco filed for a new Annual Revenue Requirement in February 2026 (ERC Case No. 2026-016 RC) covering the first regulatory period under the new rate-setting framework. If approved, distribution charges — which have been frozen since 2022 — may increase from 2027.
Rate forecast — 2027 to 2030
These are scenario-based forecasts — not guarantees. The range reflects different assumptions about global fuel prices, peso/dollar exchange rates, and regulatory outcomes.
All scenarios use ₱14.35/kWh (April 2026) as base. Low: 3% p.a. (stable peso, flat fuel costs). Mid: 5% p.a. (above historical 3.9% CAGR to account for structural pressures). High: 7% p.a. (peso weakness, fuel price increases, GEA-All and FIT-All escalation).
What rising rates mean for your solar return
Every year you delay going solar, Meralco rates go up — and every rate increase makes your future solar savings larger in peso terms but doesn't change the cost of the system you've already installed. This is the compounding benefit of going solar now rather than later.
A system installed in 2026 locks in your effective electricity rate (near zero for self-consumed solar) for 25 years. By 2030, you would be saving against a retail rate potentially 20–40% higher than today.
At 3% rate growth
₱16.15
Meralco rate in 2030
₱1,800/mo more than today vs no solar
At 5% rate growth
₱17.44
Meralco rate in 2030
₱3,100/mo more than today vs no solar
At 7% rate growth
₱18.81
Meralco rate in 2030
₱4,460/mo more than today vs no solar
* Savings figures assume a 5 kWp solar PV system covering 80% of a typical household consumption.
Sources & References
- [1]Energy Regulatory Commission Philippines — Retail Electricity Rate Decisions — ERC
- [2]Meralco — Electricity Rate Archives — Manila Electric Company
- [3]Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2023 — International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)
- [4]Solar PV — Technology and Market Report — International Energy Agency (IEA)
See your 25-year savings projection
Our Solar AI Engine models Meralco rate escalation into every proposal — so you see the real long-term picture, not just Year 1 savings.
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